日本看准韩国弱点出击----世界工业制造链条上没有韩国

来源:环球时报    关键词:半导体芯片, 日韩贸易战,    发布时间:2019-07-12

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日韩贸易纷争愈演愈烈。为应对日本的出口管制举措,从大财团一把手赴日到诉诸世贸组织(WTO),从号召企业界“共度时艰”、构建“官民紧急体制”,到寻求美国支持与调解,韩国方面紧急动员,几乎考虑了“所有应对方案”。但目前来看,韩方的应对既软又空,难有实质效果,反而给外界以无计可施之感。日本制裁韩国,背后有多重动机,究其根源,甚至牵扯到两国之间的民族仇恨情绪,但日方的针对性操作确实扼住了韩国支柱产业的咽喉。日本何以仅通过控制3种原材料就能让韩国坐立不安?

博弈——“自伤一百损敌一千”

“5万亿对1700亿(韩元,100韩元约合0.6元人民币)。”据韩国财经网站“MT”报道,这是日本此次限制对韩出口推定的韩日最大损失额。分析认为,日本首相安倍晋三在进行精密计算后,最终选择了这种“自伤一百损敌一千”的做法。有韩国半导体产业人士承认,如果日本继续强化管制,有可能导致两国相关产业“共灭”,但双方的直接损失显然不在一条水平线上。



正如汽车出口之于日本,半导体产品出口是韩国的支柱产业,三星、LG、SK等是关系到韩国经济大局的重要制造企业。根据韩国产业通商资源部的统计,今年1-5月,韩国半导体出口总值高达45.0294万亿韩元。如果单纯比较日本对韩3种物资供货值和韩国半导体停产造成的损失的话,有可能达到1:270的比例。不仅如此,鉴于韩日半导体产业的竞争格局,有担忧的声音认为,日本有可能借断供动摇包括三星电子、SK海力士等韩国主要半导体企业的地位。

韩国经济发展依赖外国生产材料,由企业生产出中间品或成品之后再出口。这次被管制的3种材料,日本在全球市场占有率达到七至九成,韩国则在半导体内存市场占有率高达五至七成。韩国中小企业团体前不久对269家半导体、液晶屏、通信设备和零部件等受日本出口限制影响明显的企业发起调查,发现近六成(59%)企业表示如果日本制裁长期化,那么很难坚持6个月以上。更关键的是,有46.8%的可能受影响企业并没有对策。这已经在韩国部分中小企业中造成恐慌。

此外,据称日本政府还在准备100项对韩出口限制清单。这绝非空口威胁。按照2018年的统计数据,韩国对日依赖度高的前10大物资分别是:半导体制造设备(占进口总量的33.8%,价值52.42亿美元)、控制设备(11.7%,19.22亿美元)、其他精密化学原料(15.2%,19亿美元)、其他合成树脂(42.8%,16.34亿美元)、废旧钢铁(61.4%,16.24亿美元)、铁及非合金钢柔性钢板(64.8%,12.62亿美元)、其他化学工业制品(30.9%,12.03亿美元)、二甲苯(95.4%,10.85亿美元)……

根源——“日本供应零部件、原材料,韩国制造成品”

日本供应零部件、原材料和设备,韩国制造成品——韩国自1965年与日本邦交正常化后,一直面临对日贸易逆差问题,累计已经高达6046亿美元,主要原因就是这种产业和贸易结构。

去年,韩国对日贸易逆差为240.8亿美元,按国别来看规模最大。具体来说,原材料、二甲苯、机械类产生85.7亿美元逆差,电机机器、录音设备、再生机械产生43.3亿美元逆差,而电子元器件制造机械、精密机械等产生35.7亿美元逆差。总的来看,半导体设备、电子元器件制造机械、电子机械控制设备等是导致对日贸易逆差的主要原因。

从日本的角度看,很容易理解。“欧洲人发明一个新事物,美国人将其商品化,英国人对其投资,法国人来做设计,日本人把它小型化,中国人将其廉价化”,这是在日本很多人都知道的一个说法。从这个分工可以看到主要国家在世界工业制造领域的位置,而制造业比较发达的韩国却不在这个链条上。确切地说,韩国贡献有限,原因是没有专有和擅长的一面。

日本能拥有“小型化”专长,是因为二战后它一直在世界工业领域致力于一些高精尖技术的掌握和突破。日本有很多中小企业,有的企业甚至只有十几个人和几台机床,在大企业大量兼并小企业的形势下,为了生存下去它们只能靠掌握“独门绝技”。而韩国在崛起阶段,靠模仿日本一度让后者在电子行业脸上无光,但这么多年过去,日本被模仿却从未被超越,韩国始终没有致力于找出自己的专长领域并长年投入。

韩国对外经济政策研究院发达经济研究室主任金圭判接受韩联社采访时也称,过去韩国依靠美日的资本及技术实现经济增长,从上世纪七八十年代开始,韩国政府推动提高零部件和原材料的国产化率,但截至2010年,仅在汽车领域取得显著成果,原材料方面仍没有缩小与日本的技术差距。

“前有日本领先,后有中国追击,韩国材料产业或沦为三明治夹心”,这是韩国经济界不少专家的看法。材料领域需要长期的研发积累,而且技术壁垒很高,这是韩企难以实现跨越式发展的主要原因。当然,一旦开发成功,就能在市场上占据绝对优势,享受到“先发优势”。韩国LG化学和韩华L&C等在2013年曾试图推动由日本日东电工垄断的制作触摸显示屏面板必需的氧化铟锡切片国产化,但最后不得不放弃。

逆转——日本重夺旗舰产业市场?

日本这次针对性制裁韩国半导体行业,还有一段被人忽视的“渊源”。美国彭博社称,韩国如今是世界头号存储芯片制造国,这一地位是从发达国家手中夺取的。首先是日本在上世纪80年代从美国手中夺取领军地位,然后是韩企在90年代异军突起,导致日企市场份额急剧下跌,只是韩企仍然依赖日本生产的特定工业化学品。鉴于此,尽管不少人认为日本此次是在报复两国外交争端,但日本领导人也有可能对韩企夺走日本的旗舰产业之一而恼火,并希望重新夺回其市场。

实际上,除了在存储芯片制造领域取得优异战果,韩国政府一直没忘记振兴材料产业。2013年11月,韩国产业通商资源部发布“第三次材料零部件发展基本计划”,表示要在2020年前实现材料和零部件产业出口6500亿美元,贸易顺差达到2500亿美元,超越日本进入世界四强之列。为开发出世界水平的十大核心材料,韩国政府计划在2016年前进行1.7万亿韩元民间投资和3000亿韩元政府投资。

今年6月,韩国政府发布“2030制造业世界四强”规划,称将在2030年把现在排名世界第六的出口规模提高到第四,把世界一流商品制造企业数量提升到现在的两倍(从573家到1200家)。韩国产业研究院认为,当前韩国制造业的附加价值率为25.5%,远达不到经合组织(OECD)30%的平均水平,这在很大程度上是因为韩国零部件、材料和设备的对外依存度高和技术竞争力恶化等。

这次面对日本的逼迫,按《日本经济新闻》的说法,日韩半导体产业界人士均认为,两国的技术差距很大,预计韩国企业短时间内很难从日本以外的地方采购到替代产品,但韩国可能会举政企之力推进国产化和替代采购。只是眼下,韩国或许只能忍耐,然后通过外交手段谈判解决,因为在很多观察家看来,此次摩擦的根源是“政治”。

一位长期在韩国交流的中国学者告诉《环球时报》记者,日本制裁韩国有多重动机,对内有参议院选举等政治考虑,对外可理解为针对日韩间政治问题的经济报复。“在政治色彩上属于‘进步派’的文在寅政府上台后,与保守派执政的日本一直‘八字不合’。前有特朗普做‘榜样’,安倍有样学样,想借经济手段来引发韩国国内政治冲突,分化韩国社会舆论,给文在寅政府施压。”果不其然,在日本公布制裁措施后,韩国最大在野党自由韩国党便对文在寅政府进行声讨,认为日本采取这一措施,责任在于韩国政府。

这位学者说,从更深层次看,尽管有人(美国学者贾雷德·戴蒙德的《枪炮、病菌和钢铁》)把日韩比作“双胞胎兄弟”,但实际上,日本看韩国一直有一种居高临下的心态。举个例子,1963年底,朴正熙就任总统,日本派出政坛元老大野伴睦作为特使赴韩。出发前,大野伴睦公开表示,他与朴正熙就像父子,能作为特使去参加儿子的就职典礼,没有比这更开心的事了。

社科院日本所副研究员卢昊对《环球时报》记者说,日本选择这个时机,是因为它认为当前形势对其有利,有美国的战略支持,与中国的关系持续改善,而韩国自去年以来经贸金融状况恶化。日本认为用贸易手段压制韩国可以更有效地击中其软肋,迫其低头,“它也试图借此展示它在贸易战方面具备针对特定国家‘精确打击’的能力”。

据日本广播协会网站报道,今年4月,日本经济产业省成立新的专门部门,对日本拥有的高端技术的贸易管理开展调查,希望集中掌握日企及研究机构拥有的高端技术和产品信息,以及出口对象国是如何使用这些技术和产品的。某种程度上,韩国成为日本类似举动服务于对外战略的实验对象。


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